Al-Qaeda resorting to Tudor tactics?

The 1588 famous victory of England's Royal Navy with her little ships pitted against the mighty galleons of the Spanish Armada is folklore in English History.  However, any detail in connection with the list of events will include mention of fireships which Sir Francis Drake, Lord High Admiral, put to good use by sending then in amongst the Spanish fleet at anhcor off Gravelines.  The net result was that the Spanish fleet cut thier ties at anchor, were scattered and put into disarray, thereby allowing the nimbler Engish ships to chase them away up the North Sea or onto the beaches.  The Spanish threat to English sovereignty was, for the time being, removed.

However, the threat of Al-Qaeda to the non-Muslim world is real and it is acknowledged in all quarters that Al-Qaeda will use the best available means to create the most loss of life and economic havoc possible at any given time.  This week, on Wednesday March 17th  Al-Qaeda called for renewed economic jihad agaisnt the West. This, compounded with intelligence reports stemming from Sinagpare has put all vulnerable nations on higher security alert.

Al-Qaeda has been raising its call to terrorist jihad in an increasingly aggressive way duing the last few months.  In February 2010 Said al-Shihri, deputy leader of AQAP (Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula) issued an appeal to jihad to the Somalis to capture the Bab El Mandeb (The Gate of Tears). Earlier this month, Adam Gavan, Al-Qaeda’s media U.S.-born spokesman, called on jihadists to "further undermine the West's already struggling economies." 
This coincided with an intelligence warning from Singapore that the Straits of Malacca were liable to be attacked by the relatively newly styled terrorist group “Al-Qaeda in Aceh”.  This group seems to consist of JI (Jemaah Islamiyah), an Indonesian militant jihadist group and elements of the Philippine militants, Abu Sayyaf.  Intelligence reports suggest that both groups have been showing an increase in maritime activity recently, even though Indonesian counter-terrorism forces have successfully attacked JI.  Aceh, however, is the northern most part of Sumatra and its coastline is on the southern side of the Straits of Malacca.  Its population consists of conservative Muslims who may be sympathetic to Al-Qaeda, aka JI.  Abu Sayyaf, until now has restricted its targets to local ferries with the odd threat towards larger shipping.

The difference between Al-Qaeda’s threats to these two world shipping lanes is that the Straits of Malacca are much more easily policed than the Bab El Mandeb.  The head of the IMB (International Maritime Bureau) piracy reporting centre, Noel Choong issued guidelines to shipping to keep a 24 hour watch when traversing the Straits, and added: "The terrorists need the element of surprise if they want to attack. They need to do it quietly. These are all territorial waters and the littoral states are now on the alert.  Unlike in the Gulf of Aden, the authorities can respond very quickly if there is an attack.”

However, like the Gulf of Aden, the Straits of Malacca is a major waterway for oil supplies to Pacific Asia. Only 2 miles wide at the narrowest point of its 600 mile length, the Straits carry 6 times the volume of shipping traffic of the Suez Canal.  Roughly 15 million barrels of oil pass through every day en route from the Arabian Gulf. 

Oil and chemical tankers are vulnerable to attack with their highly combustible cargoes.  If the various intelligence reports are assembled and examined as a whole, it is an uncomfortable realization that should Al-Qaeda resort to Sir Francis Drake’s tactics, they could quickly control a hideous arsenal of floating bombs.  This would not be a new tactic for them although to date this form of maritime weapon has only been employed in single operations, such as the attack on the USS Cole in 2000 and MV LIMBERG in October 2002.  Both attacks involved small boats packed with explosives driven by suicide bombers ramming the larger vessels.  There have been no similar attacks since perhaps due to the supposed mastermind, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, a Saudi of Yemeni origin, being behind bars since November 2002.

U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) has only this week, issued a fresh warning that all vessels transitting the Bab El Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden along the coast of Yemen are at risk of an attack form Al-Qaeda.  The warning goes on to state that this is likely to be similar to the attacks on the USS Cole or MV Lindberg but could also involve the use of RPGs or missiles.

An attack on shipping is one thing but control of these narrow waterways is another – but it is not beyond consideration. Since the recent intelligence reports, Yemen has increased its security of energy industry terminals.  The country has a large LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) terminal close to the port of Aden, and has just started exporting LNG to USA and South Korea. Although the Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Kurbi is reported to have said it is unlikely the jihadists could totally control the Bab El Mandeb (20 miles wide), he did concede that they could "threaten ships by attacking them with missiles or capturing them in international waters like the pirates of Somalia." 

There is, however, an additional factor, which should be considered, and that is the number of oil tankers, which have recently been hi-jacked.  Sir Francis Drake’s fire ships never actually came into contact with any of the Spanish galleons.  They did not have modern technology to ensure contact with their targets.  Oil tankers may not be fitted out with heat-seeking missiles but they could be equipped with trained suicide Islamic jihadist crews, enthusiastic to reap their multitude of virgins awaiting them in paradise.

2010 has seen a disquieting number of oil tankers hi-jacked by Somali pirates.  How close is the link between the pirates and Al-Qaeda, or in its local form, Al-Shabaab?  Until now, links have been tenuous, but as the pirates become more organised and use more sophisticated weaponry, so their links with major criminal organisations will increase.  Furthermore, although Al-Shabaab has not had close ties with the pirates until now, Al-Shabaab has a new and potentially more dangerous leader with the arrival of Fazul Andullah Mohammed, who is thought to have coordinated the bombings of the U.S. Embassy in East Africa in 1998.  He may well be aiming at closer ties with the pirates with the intention of using them for Al-Qaeda ends.  If so, terrorist activity in this area will increase in size and sophistication

If Al-Qaeda were to launch a major offensive involving captured oil tankers as floating bombs, it would be terrifying and cause immense damage.  However, it seems unlikely that such an operation would lead to their total control of either waterway. 

Nonetheless, the U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor, noted that while the plan outlined by al-Shihri to take over the Bab El Mandeb is "not a very plausible strategy, the statement does reflect an Al-Qaeda interest in targeting strategic waterways.”

Fortunately, there has also been news coming out of Pakistan of the death of over half of the top Al-Qaeda leaders.  Leon Panetta, director of CIA, is quoted in The Washington Post of March 18th 2010:  "Those operations (very recent large number of strikes in Northern Pakistan’s tribal areas) are seriously disrupting Al-Qaeda.  It's pretty clear from all the intelligence we are getting that they are having a very difficult time putting together any kind of command and control that they are scrambling. And that we really do have them on the run."  Al-Qaeda leaders killed are said to include Hussein al-Yemeni who has been behind many of Al-Qaeda bombing attacks as well as being a key link between AQAP and the Taliban both in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  This, seen in conjunction with the recent capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Deputy leader of the Afghan Taliban, means that Al-Qaeda will have to regroup but it is unlikely to bring a reduction of attacks on the West.  One of the main reasons Al-Qaeda is so successful globally is that each section may be identified with the whole image, but operates independently.  It is not a question of hit one group and the pile will totter.  Rather, it may be hit one group and another will retaliate to prove how alive and threatening Al-Qaeda remains as a whole. 

Using fireships would send a dramatic message.  The fireball created by an exploding oil tanker would far exceed that of an Elizabethan fireship.   How much long term damage would several exploding oil tankers do within a radius of 20 miles in the Bab El Mandeb or 2 miles in the Straits of Malacca?  The intelligence services of the West must remain working overtime.

March 19th 2010