Upping the Ante

“The ante is the enforced bet that poker players must put into the pot before they can play a hand of poker. If you "up the ante," you increase the amount of the bets. Thus, upping the ante means to raise the stakes or increase the risk of a project.”  This definition provided by Wiki answers is highly appropriate with regard to the Somali pirates’ recent spate of activity in the face of intensified opposition by NATO, EUNAVFOR and other international anti-piracy forces. Both groups have upped their antes with how much success on each side?

There is of course, the natural reason for the increase in activity that the weather conditions are becoming more favourable.  "We have now a three-month period between the winter and summer monsoons and in this period pirates are departing (more often) with fuel and supply to give them considerable range into the Indian Ocean," as Commodore Hans Christian Helseth, Deputy Chief-of-Staff of Operations at NATO's Allied Maritime Command, told Reuters this past week at a piracy seminar held in Norway. 

So, true to the season, there have been almost daily Somali pirate hijackings reported since the beginning of March, and many more pirate attacks.  Alongside these, ransom demands are increasing in a volatile manner.

In December 2009 The Maran Centaurus carrying an estimated 2 million barrels of crude oil was released for a record $5.5 million according to the pirates, although other sources reported  $7 million.  Also, last year, pirates seized the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star carrying $100 million in oil cargo.  She was released after a reported ransom payment of $3m according to The Guardian newspaper.   Now the pirates are demanding a mere $20 million for the release of the Al-Nasr Al-Saudi, not perhaps one of the most valuable ships to be captured since she is a small oil tanker and was empty at the time of attack. 

Are the pirates upping the ante?  Thinking in terms of the Haradheere stock exchange and the size of ransoms, the ante is definitely on the climb, as rewards appear more and more appealing – if they, the pirates, get them.  A Reuter’s report quoted Sahra Ibrahim, 22-year-old divorcee, who claimed to have made $75,000 in just 38 days: “I am waiting for my share after I contributed a rocket-propelled grenade for [an] operation.”  In terms of risk, the success rate for hijacks is diminishing.  So maybe the ransom demands have to increase to compensate.  According to the Los Angeles Times, in 2009 the pirates increased their number of attacks by 62% compared to the previous year.  However, their rate of success in terms of hijackings fell from 34% in 2008 to 22% in 2009.  What is interesting is that this had been as high as 63% in 2007, but that was before the main combined anti-piracy task forces came into being.   If the rate of hi-jack hits is dropping, this has been counter balanced by ransom inflation. $48.4 million was paid in ransom in 2009.  What will 2010 bring? 

However, there does seem to have been a bit of “an arms race” between the Somali pirates and the international maritime opposition. The escalation of use of arms by the Somali pirates and corresponding proactive military action and subsequent retention of captured pirate suspects is manifest.  The pirates increasing use of sophisticated weapons has heightened the risks for merchant shipping and its crews.  According to the Maritime Security Forum, the pirates’ favourite weapon is the RPG-7.  Other light weapons include the AK47 and heavy weapons the SPG9 and various other guns, mortars and rockets.  Reports of merchant shipping under attack frequently include rocket attacks and incendiaries.  Last week on Thursday March 4th the Spanish fishing trawler, the Albacan, was attacked.  EU NAVFOR Somalia, the EU's anti-piracy mission in the region, posted on its website: "One of the skiffs ... fired a rocket-propelled grenade that exploded on the deck of the fishing vessel.  The explosion caused a small fire that has now been extinguished."  These attacks cannot be viewed lightly.  Although the pirates do not usually aim to kill ships’ crews sometimes it has happened.  Of the four sailors who died off the Somali coast in 2009, only one was killed in an attack.  Two of the others died during rescue operations and the last in captivity.  It is obvious, though, that the pirate attacks are becoming more dangerous for the crews.  Twenty of last year’s attacks involved rocket-propelled grenades including at oil and chemical tankers.  There was one incident where two grenades got lodges in the door of the bridge.  As Graeme Gibbon Brooks of Dryad Maritime Intelligence put it:  “In the old days (pirates) just used to show up and wave a rusty rifle. Now people aren't so easily frightened."

By the same token, in return, the risks the pirates face from coalition anti-piracy navies are much greater. As John Harbour spokesman for the European Union Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) said, with the approaching “piracy season” imminent: "The pirates have been preparing for it. ... We are prepared as well," he said. "We know the monsoon is over. We know they're coming. We're taking the fight to the pirates."

Bearing this in mind, 2010 has seen an amazing burst of NATO/EUNAVFOR/CMF activity. February saw the first active successful assault by Danish NATO forces on pirates who had captured a Slovenian cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden.  The ships’ crew had barricaded themselves out of harm’s way so Special Forces could be sent onboard without risk to the crew.  "It's the first time that an assault of this nature has taken place," said John Harbour. Lieutenant Colonel Wolfgang Schmidt, NATO Allied Command Operations spokesman in Lisbon,  reinforced the message behind this operation saying the Special Forces' action "demonstrates NATO's resolve to deter and disrupt piracy off the Horn of Africa.”  Some of the pirates who had managed to flee were later picked up by the Russian frigate the Neutrashimyy.  This was a joint operation and delivered a strong message to the pirates that the days of warships standing by and watching pirate attacks are over.  Since then combined international forces have continued their aggressive approach to the pirates.  Between Friday 5th March and Sunday 7th the French frigate Nivose had achieved its "biggest seizure" so far in the vital shipping lane off Somalia.  35 suspected pirates were arrested and four mother ships seized as well as six smaller boats in four operations since Friday. The EU's Atalanta mission said forces from France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain and Sweden were involved in action between Friday and Sunday, and included six more pirates being taken into custody after being rescued by a French fishing trawler.  This brought the total of suspects arrested in the three-day period to over 40.  The rescues had occurred after a mother ship had sunk after colliding during its attack.  The same week, Turkish SAT commandos captured seven pirates with a G-3 assault rifle and other pirate tools from a skiff in the Gulf of Aden.  Thus it continues.

Militarily, apart from NATO and EUNAVFOR, India, China and the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), are also involved in anti-piracy operations in this region as well as other countries. Hopefully, Saudi forces will shortly join them since His Excellency Dr. Jubarah Bin Eid Alsuraisry, Minister of Transport of Saudi Arabia has just signed the Code of Conduct on the Suppression of Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in the Western Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden (Djibouti Code of Conduct).  Saudi is now the 13th country to sign this accord, a fact welcomed by IMO (International Maritime Organisation) Secretary-General Efthimios E. Mitropoulos: “The unabated acts of piracy, not only in waters off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden but also in the wider expanse of the western Indian Ocean, continue to be in the public spotlight.  … The support of Saudi Arabia for the effective implementation of the Djibouti Code of Conduct and for the efforts to protect international shipping by the naval forces deployed in the region are, therefore, important contributions.”   There is now real global pressure on the pirates as the international community bears the brunt of the pirates’ disruption of some of the world’s major shipping lanes.  As Commodore Hans Christian Helseth, Deputy Chief-of-Staff of Operations at NATO's Allied Maritime Command at Northwood put it:  “Coordinating these efforts could lead to some unusual multinational reporting lines.  By the end of 2010 U.S. warships could be coordinated by a Chinese admiral."

Furthermore, as well as facing multinational military opposition at sea, the pirates if caught, face lengthy prison sentences.  No longer are the majority of pirate suspects allowed to go free for lack of prosecution facilities.  The Seychelles are renovating a prison especially for pirates, and Kenya is handing out 20 year sentences.  Wednesday this week saw eight Somalis given 20 year jail sentences which Senior Principal Magistrate Lilian Mutende declared lenient:  “The offence of piracy is serious and carries a life imprisonment but because they are young and family men, I sentence each of them to 20 years' imprisonment."

The Somali pirates have been plying their illegal trade for too long.  The world is “not amused” as Queen Victoria might have said.  The more the pirates demand, the more violent the methods they use become, so the stronger will be the international reaction.  So who is raising the ante?  It depends on how the Somali pirate is perceived.  Is he the poor fisherman having had his fishing waters invaded by the larger French and Spanish fishing fleets?   Is he the greedy amoral robber?  Is he the greedy but ignorant pawn of the local pirate barons – and who runs them?  Al-Qaeda, Al Shabaab, or other criminal rings or terrorist organisations?   What is of no doubt is that the struggle on all fronts has escalated and the world pays the cost.

March 12th 2010